Grzegorz W. Kolodko (auth.)'s Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future: PDF

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Additional resources for Whither the World: The Political Economy of the Future: Volume 2

Example text

Such approaches have caused a new wave of intense research into what a greater temperature increase may lead to. 11 A joint report by the World Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics estimates that if the temperature increases by 4°C, in 2100 the sea level will have risen by a half to one meter, with its devastating consequences for coastal localities. As many as three-quarters of tropical forests may perish, mostly in India, Indonesia and the Philippines, which will contribute still further to global warming.

The next generation is therefore 7 percent fewer, only 186 individuals, compared to the previous, 200-strong generation. 0). 1 children so that, as time passes, the number of people remains the same. 1. Let’s say that 85 gave birth to two children each, or a total of 170, six more to three babies, or a total of 18, and the remaining four, to four children, which makes 16. Consequently, a total of 204 babies were born (170 + 18 + 16). Unfortunately, four died and only 200 lived to maturity and were able to start reproducing.

With the values that have been predominant so far, humanity may not have a good future. This dispute must be resolved pragmatically, if the civilization is to survive. Once before, in the late Ice Age, humanity was close to extinction. Back then, we survived thanks to the instinct of self-preservation and a lucky turn of events although, according to some estimates, there were no more than a million of us at the time. In a multi-billion future, there’s no point in speculating that we’ll be saved by good luck.

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