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Example text

With I' shifted three months back by means of interpolation. Thus, I;_t was obtained by taking three-fourths of I' in a given year and onefourth of I' in the preceding year. To allow for trend a double correlation was established of P with I;_t and the time t 1 For details of the calculation of P and I' see Statistical Appendix, Notes 7 and 8. e. from the beginning of 1935). The regression equation is: P, = 1·34/;_l + 13·4- 0·13t The value of profits calculated from this equation are given for comparison with actual profits in Table 13.

Table 9. Analysis of Changes in the Relative Share of Wages in Value Added in Manufacturing in the United States from 1929 to 1933 Relevant years Item Proceeds -7- prime costs Materials bill -7- wage bill Industrial composition 1929 1929 1929 Relative share of wages in value added 36·2 Difference 1933 1929 1929 34·6 -1·6 1933 1933 1933 1933 1933 1929 35·0 36·4 +1·8 -1·4 The difference between the second and the first columns gives the effect of the change in the ratio of proceeds to prime costs; that between the third and second columns the effect of the change in the ratio of the materials bill to the wage bill; and that between the fourth and the third columns the effect of the change in the industrial composition.

The formula for the relative share of wages and salaries in the gross income of the private sector established in Chapter 2 (p. 40) is as follows: V B -=oc+y y (4) where V is the 'real' wage and salary bill, and Y is the 'real' gross income of the private sector. The coefficient oc is positive and < 1 and the constant B which is subject to long-run changes, is also positive. The difference between Y and V is gross profits before taxes 'IT. ) We thus have: Y-'IT y or: B =oc+y Y='IT+B 1- oc (9) 59 For an understanding of the subsequent discussion a few words should be added about the difference between the gross national product and the gross income of the private sector, Y.

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