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Extra info for The mathematics of time: essays on dynamical systems, economic processes, and related topics

Example text

But moral hazard poses a more fundamental problem: when uncertain outcomes are in addition influenced by unobservable actions of the agents, then risk sharing must remain incomplete to provide agents with appropriate incentives. All the contracts that we have discussed above fall far short of anything like a complete system of Arrow-Debreu contracts. The simplification for consumers of using a dual system of spot markets for goods and forward contracts for income significantly economizes on computation costs relative to those that would be incurred with a complete system of forward contracts for goods.

4 The Equilibrium Model In economics, as in every branch of science, three levels or types of theory can be distinguished. The first level, which may be called intuitive theory, is based on a few simple concepts which lead by direct and intuitive arguments to qualitative propositions which may have considerable breadth of application. Most economic theory begins at this level and most of our broader conceptual  < previous page page_28 next page > If you like this book, buy it! < previous page 46 page_29 next page > 47 Page 29 understanding of economics has its roots in this category.

The first formalization of a self-fulfilling forecast as an equilibrium phenomenon (a fixed point) is due to Grundberg-Modigliani (1954) and Simon (1954). Â < previous page page_23 next page > If you like this book, buy it! < previous page page_24 next page > Page 24 martingale property, then spread to the finance literature on equity markets as the efficient markets hypothesis (Fama (1970)). At about the same time, Lucas (1972) introduced the concept into macroeconomics using the terminology of rational expectations proposed by Muth.

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