Peter C. Bishop's Teaching about the Future PDF

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Sample text

Foresight has two tricks that stand out as most useful. The extent to which one practices those tricks and encourages others to do the same, the better prepared one will be and the more the future will match one’s aspirations. Telling stories Stories are an ancient form of communication. Story-telling might even be hard-wired into people’s evolutionary mechanism. The story has meaning and carries a message using details that may not be true. Novels, movies, 12 Teaching about the Future even some music contain stories about fictional characters.

In other words, a synthesis of how change works. A second key concept is that of alternative futures, which is used to understand how change could play out in the future. Futurists seek to identify a plausible range of potential future outcomes, rather than trying to predict the future. For reasons that are explained, it is viewed as impossible to get the future right on any sort of regular basis, but that a series of possibilities can be laid out in a way that enables planning and preparation.

The mind and even the primary senses automatically respond to change – the movement out of the corner of the eye, the bump in the night, the touch of a loved one. People are wired to pay attention to change. On a social level, the media uses that tendency to bombard people with what is changing (the “news”) hour by hour or even minute by minute. Most of these changes are unimportant or even trivial, but people pay attention to them anyway. By the same token, the media rarely reports the constants, even when they are important – the good, like the millions of people who are born, graduate from school, get married, go to work, do a good job each day, or the deplorable, like persistent malnutrition, disease, poverty and oppression around the world.

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